Dentsu releases global average investment report for the second half of 2023
Dentsu presents the semi-annual investment, outlook and trends report for the media industry across major consumer markets around the world. The results presented were obtained through the analysis of data from 58 markets and the main factors that affect regions, advertising sectors and sustainability. Advertising investment forecasts are compiled from data collected by Dentsu agencies up to the second half of April 2023 based on the experience of the local market. Forecasts are provided for 58 markets covering the Americas, Europe, Middle East and Africa, and Asia Pacific and the media analyzed are: digital, television, print, out-of-home, audio and film.
According to the report, advertising spend is expected to grow 3.3% globally in 2023. Overall, $727.9 billion will be spent worldwide by the end of the year. Dentsu’s 2023 global ad spend forecasts point to continued growth, albeit adjusted marginally downwards from the 3.5% forecast in the December 2022 report, largely due to macroeconomic factors.
The report also shows growth driven by media price inflation, rather than rising advertising volume, where advertising spend at constant prices is expected to decline slightly, down -0.6% year-over-year.
The global outlook, however, as predicted by Dentsu experts in nearly 60 markets, is more positive, with spending set to accelerate faster in 2024, rising 4.7% to reach $762.5 billion. This increase in ad spend is being driven by major sporting and social events such as the UEFA Euro Championship and the US presidential election.
No brazil
Brazil stands out in the study for its rapid growth in the ad market on average, with a better-than-expected performance in 2022. An additional 5.4% growth in advertising spending is expected in 2023, reaching US$ 14 .1 billion.
The market has stabilized following the volatility caused by the pandemic as consumers balance their time between traditional and digital media. TV will have strong growth (6.0%) and maintain leadership in advertising spending (48.3%).
The prospects for the ad market in Brazil are optimistic, with a forecast increase of 7.4% in 2024, to US$ 15.1 billion.
Digital
Investment in digital will continue to grow in 2023 with an atypical one-digit increase (7.8%), which has happened only twice in the last 20 years: in 2009 (consequences of the financial crisis) and in 2020 (COVID-19 pandemic). ). Looking ahead, digital single-digit growth is expected to become the norm, with a fairly consistent year-over-year dollar increase for 2024 and 2025 (about $26 billion), on a scenario of around 60% of total market share.
Digital spend is expected to reach $424.3 billion by the end of 2023, representing 58.3% of all advertising spend, increasing further to 59.1% share in 2024 and 60.3% in 2025. Emerging digital categories are expected to continue high growth in 2023, such as retail average (18.0%) and connected TV (15.2%). Preference for programmatic buying is also on the rise, with a 14.4% increase in programmatically transacted ad spend expected to reach a 71.4% share of digital spend in 2023.
From a channel perspective, the global report’s outlook for 2023 shows a mixed forecast, perhaps most notably a drop in television ad spend for the year. TV ad spend is now expected to decline -3.1% to $170.2 billion by the end of the year, which in itself appears to be a temporary blip in its typically upward spending trend, with positive growth returning to 2024 onwards.
(Image credits: Eleni Afiontzi/Unsplash)
