The first global study to measure the economic impact of AI on the music and audiovisual sectors calculates that generative AI will enrich technology companies while placing the income of human creators at substantial risk over the next five years.
This is one of the main results of the study commissioned by CISAC (International Confederation of Societies of Authors and Composers, which represents more than 5 million creators) and conducted by PMP Strategy.
While revenues for generative AI providers are expected to grow dramatically over the next five years, creators risk losing a large portion of their current income due to AI’s substitutionary impact on human-made works. Despite providing the creative fuel for the “generative AI” content market, music and audiovisual creators could lose, respectively, 24% and 21% of their revenues by 2028. This is equivalent to a cumulative loss of R$116.82 billion (€22 billion), with R$53.10 billion (€10 billion) in music and R$63.72 billion (€12 billion) in audiovisual.
The study reveals that the market for music and audiovisual content generated by AI will grow exponentially over the next five years, going from around R$15.93 billion (€3 billion) currently to R$339.84 billion (€64 billion) in 2028.
Future revenues from generative AI providers will increase to R$21.24 billion (€4 billion) annually in music (compared to R$0.53 billion (€0.1 billion) in 2023) and R$26.55 billion (€5 billion) in audiovisual (compared to R$1.06 billion (€0.2 billion)) by 2028. These revenues are derived directly from the unlicensed reproduction of works by creators, representing a transfer of economic value from creators to AI companies.
In the music sector, the streaming and music library markets will be heavily impacted by AI. By 2028, AI-generated music is estimated to represent approximately 20% of traditional music streaming platform revenues and approximately 60% of music library revenues.
Projected revenue losses will also be substantial for audiovisual creators. Translators and adapters for dubbing and subtitling will be the most affected, with 56% of their revenue at risk, while screenwriters and directors could lose between 15% and 20% of their revenue.
Study conclusions
The study concludes: “In an unchanged regulatory scenario, creators will suffer losses on two fronts: lost revenue due to unauthorized use of their works by generative AI models, without remuneration; and replacing their traditional sources of revenue with the effect of replacing outputs generated by AI, competing with works done by humans”.
Björn Ulvaeus, president of CISAC, highlighted the study as a guide for legislative debates around the world: “AI has the power to create exciting new opportunities for creators, but if poorly regulated, it can also cause great harm to their careers and livelihoods. The outcome will depend, to a large extent, on the choices made by legislators. It is crucial to protect the rights of creators and develop an AI environment that values human creativity and culture.”
Gadi Oron, General Director of CISAC, highlighted: “This study shows the immense value that copyrighted works bring to generative AI companies. Lawmakers must act urgently to protect human creators by ensuring transparency and legal rights in the AI environment.”
Marcelo Castello Branco, chairman of the board of CISAC and CEO of UBC in Brazil, said: “Our sector has adapted to any new technology that emerges, but with generative AI we find ourselves in uncharted territory, as disruption affects the core of creative process, not just its distribution channels. We’re ready to embrace these changes, but let’s be clear: our top priority is protecting the livelihoods of the creators we represent. We are committed to ensuring they can continue their vital work and hone their craft without compromise. Together, we will navigate this landscape, protecting the rights and opportunities of those who drive true human innovation and creativity.”
Context and Methodology
The study is the first of its kind to estimate the economic impact of generative AI on music creators and audiovisual productions globally. It combines qualitative and quantitative research, using case studies of generative AI applications to identify the areas of greatest impact and convert them into economic estimates about the market penetration of generative AI services and revenue losses for creators. The study also provides revenue estimates for generative AI tools and services that can serve as a basis for calculating compensation schemes for creators.
Historical numbers and projections are based on market data, relevant benchmarks and extensive interviews with industry experts: collective management organizations (CMOs), creators, technology companies, producers, publishers, digital platforms (DSPs), representative institutional agents of these industries and public institutions.
