Events concentrated in a short period of time, such as Black Friday, the World Cup and Christmas, cheer up, but a polarized election worries
“It will be anything but monotonous”, thus Mário D’Andrea, president of ABAP (Brazilian Association of Advertising Agencies) and CSO of D’OM, summarizes what the advertising market and Brazilians in general can expect in the coming months until the end of the year. “Everything indicates that the second semester will be very busy in Brazil. So, if you like routine and calm, it is better to skip the semester and only come back next year”, he adds.
It is a vision shared by several professionals interviewed by PROPMARK about the perspectives of the semester that is about to begin. For starters, everyone agrees, it will be an atypical period, “the second half of this year will be marked by two important events that should impact not only the advertising industry, but also the business world. The elections, in October, and the World Cup, between November and December, have certain similarities. Both will have a degree of passion involved, but obviously in different ways. There will be a great concentration of the population’s attention and a high degree of expectation for the final result.
In the case of elections, in the current scenario, where we see a clear polarization, the clash of narratives, including emotional ones, already occurs intensely on social networks. I believe that until the elections there will still be a predominance of attention for this event”, says Márcio Toscani, co-CEO and COO of Leo Burnett TM.
The positive outlook cited by all will be concentrated in the last two months of the year, which will include Black Friday, the World Cup and Christmas. For the first time in history, held at the end of the year, the Cup will be held between the week of Black Friday – which has become one of the main retail sales dates – and Christmas.
“The outlook for the second half of this year is positive. Even with the uncertainties in the economy, I see that the market can be compensated by an intense calendar in the second half of the year. The World Cup and Black Friday, for example, added to the resumption of on-site events of national or more regional size, which could not happen in the last two years, are opportunities for brands to build consistent results. With all this scenario of possibilities ahead of us, we are optimistic about the movement that brands and the advertising market are preparing for the
second semester”, says Eduardo Simon, CEO and founding partner of Galeria.
Opinion shared by Antonio Fadiga – partner and CEO of Artplan: “Our communication market should gain traction in the coming months as a result of these new opportunities”. This optimism is also based on data already released by Cenp-Meios, which, in the first quarter of this year, showed a 19% growth in media investment compared to the previous year, recalls Daniel Queiroz, president of Fenapro.
“With the arrival of the World Cup, optimism should emerge. And then we will have a good opportunity for business, as Brazil enters the field on November 24, a Thursday before Black Friday. In other words, I believe that November will be an important month for a resumption of the consumption force, but this week, in particular, will be very strategic”, believes Fernando Diniz, co-CEO of DPZ&T.
Caution
However, there is not only good news on the horizon for the coming months. “In a broader view, the second half of 2022 is the compilation of all the challenges of the last 20 years concentrated in six months: elections, inflation, lack of inputs, public security issues, Ukraine war, pandemic… If we focus on our market, we will have a condensed semester in the last three months of the year, with a great concentration of activations in this period – Black Friday, World Cup, Christmas -, in addition to the election results, making everything even more challenging, as we will face a period of high demand and expected sales and results in a short period of time”, believes Marcia Esteves, CEO and partner of Lew’Lara\TBWA.
The main reason for caution, not to say concern, of market professionals, without a doubt, is the October elections. “We will start October with the tension of a country polarized by the elections, with a lot of aggression, fake news and difficult news for Brazil. After the elections, tension may still increase, depending on the pressure from those in the opposition regarding the result. During this period, people will not be optimistic and this will negatively influence the propensity to consume”, warns Diniz.
To guard against a shaky horizon, many companies are anticipating deals. “We felt a great acceleration on the part of many customers in the first half of the year. They look for a delivery of the year’s result in these six months, to become less dependent on the second half”, reveals Rafaela Queiroz, VP of Media at DPZ&T.
“We will clearly have an upheaval in the economy with the prospect of the elections, which will certainly be the most polarized in recent decades. This polarization, of course, ends up leaving doubts about the government project that will command the Brazilian economy and this can hinder some investment decisions by companies”, emphasizes D’Andrea.
For Dudu Godoy, president of Sinapro, the second semester will generate investment instability due to the elections. “Unemployment and inflation also generate stagnation in trade and services.
This scenario reflects on advertising, which should have lower investment, in addition to low inventories. Investment in publicity on open TV decreases during elections, either due to a decrease in available space or due to competition between politics and products. The World Cup should improve this scenario at the end of the year. Being able to tie in the average of investments. That is, the electoral negative versus the positive football ”, he says.
Guerra
Another reason for concern in the second semester was mentioned by Vitor Lieff, CFO & General Manager of WMcCann São Paulo: the war in Ukraine.
“It is a consensus that global economic activity in the second half of the year should slow down, mainly due to the persistence of the war between Russia and Ukraine and its impacts on global inflation; interest escalation in the American economy due to inflation and effects of the lockdown in China due to the country’s Covid zero policy. In Brazil, despite the positive GDP result in the first quarter of 2022 and the increase in the number of workers with a formal contract in the first months of the year, the still persistent inflation and the consequent increase in the Selic rate should curb this positive trend. In addition to these factors, the international scenario and the approach of elections should continue to influence our economy throughout the second half of 2022. Regarding the elections, our team prepared support material for our clients, due to this scenario so polarized that we are living. On the other hand, we will have the World Cup being played in unusual months (November and December), which can shake the economy in the last quarter, along with Black Friday and a challenging time for Brazil and the world. A good start on the road, in every way, would be the end of the war in Ukraine”, says Lieff.
resumption
However, the beginning of summer can be added to the end-of-year events as a reason for optimism, adds Márcio Toscani. “For the first time in history, we will have a World Cup starting on November 21, with the grand final on December 18. Despite the fact that summer officially starts on December 21st, we will already be in full swing in a festive season and intense heat in Brazil. This will make people more on the streets, in bars, at events, socializing with their family and friends. And, to close the year, right after the World Cup
of the World, Christmas will come! In other words, we will have a second semester filled with important events, in which brands and companies will have opportunities to reinforce their positioning, connecting even more with their consumers on the various existing platforms. It will be a time when many deals will be made and will leverage the advertising industry as a whole”, says Toscani.
Fernando Diniz predicts the end of the astral hell of the market this second semester: “To predict the business scenario for the second semester, I will take into account the fact that we have a kind of alignment of the stars: first the elections in the month of October, then then, in November, a World Cup superimposed on a Black Friday.
And to close this conjunction of the planets, which will certainly impact any strategy, Christmas will come, just seven days after the World Cup final. So, I see that in my imaginary astral map of the market, November could be the end of astral hell”, says Diniz.
The role of communication in the recovery of the economy is highlighted by Daniel Queiroz.
“I believe that, in the second half of the year, we will continue to follow a path of retaking and sustaining the importance of the role of communication. In this scenario, the World Cup is a positive factor, even if we have warnings because of the elections and the difficult macroeconomic moment in the country and the world. In this sense, we are following the numbers and market sentiment, which point to growth compared to last year, and I strongly believe in the maintenance of this trend, especially because, over the last two completely adverse years, the importance of communication has become evident. for companies, products, brands and consumers. Among so many lessons learned in this environment where communication is necessary, differentiated and attracts people’s attention, it became clear that this type of investment cannot be given up. It is also important to consider that, for a part of the market, elections and World Cups are great opportunities, and this will bring good results for some agencies. Therefore, the forecast remains as optimistic as at the beginning of the year, with the market already demonstrating this expected growth in practice”, ponders Queiroz.
“The year has been tough. War, inflation, global uncertainties and, in the case of Brazil, a promise of more than polarized elections. Today, there is a mix of skepticism (that the worst is yet to come) and optimism (that the worst is over). And that usually reserves opportunities. For me, I think that the brands that know how to invest and sow at this moment will reap good results. It’s time to believe and build. Anyone who waits for this tram to pass can waste precious time”, concludes José Lopes, chief growth officer (CGO) at AlmapBBDO.
